614 Ladin Lane

Pricing Strategy & Market Analysis

Prepared for Lenny & Nancy Werbin


Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury

October 2026

The Position

614 Ladin Lane offers something very few homes in this price band can: a walk of roughly 100 yards to a private HOA park with a boat ramp and dock on Lake Travis, on a level 0.88-acre cul-de-sac lot that backs to Lakeway City Park.

Over the past year, comparable Lakeway homes between 4,500 and 6,300 square feet have closed in a narrow band of $1,350,000 to $1,500,000. The homes that launched inside that band sold in about three weeks. The homes that launched above it reduced, sat, and still closed inside it.

Our recommendation is built on that pattern, and on preparing the home so that its lake access, its scale, and its new pickleball court are what buyers remember.

Property Snapshot

Living area

5,597 SF (MLS) / 5,595 SF (tax record)

Bedrooms / Baths

5 bedrooms / 5 full baths

Primary suite

Main level

Levels

Two — 3,172 SF main, 2,423 SF upper

Year built

2006

Lot

0.88 acre, level, cul-de-sac, backs to Lakeway City Park

Lake access

Private HOA park with boat ramp and dock, approx. 100 yards

Pool

Heated pool and spa, diving board, slide, stone grotto and waterfall

Garage

Oversized three-car attached with boat storage

Construction

Masonry on all sides, tile roof

Living spaces

Media room, game room, gym, two living areas, library

Added since 2018

Pickleball court; tall palms removed

Schools

Lake Travis ISD — Serene Hills, Hudson Bend, Lake Travis HS

What Sets This Home Apart

  • Lake access on foot. A private HOA boat ramp and dock roughly 100 yards away. Most homes in this price band reach the lake by car.
  • Built for a boat owner. An oversized garage with room for boat storage, rare at this price and lot size.
  • A lake view from the upper deck. The second-level deck off two guest rooms looks out to Lake Travis, while the rest of the property stays private.
  • A level, usable acre. The lot holds a full pool environment, covered and open patios, and a pickleball court without crowding any of them.
  • Primary suite on the main level, with four bedrooms, a media room, a game room and a gym above.
  • Backs to parkland, so no rear neighbors.
  • All-masonry construction with a tile roof.

Micro-Market Context

Lakeway and the 620 corridor, resale homes, 4,500–6,300 SF, pool, closed December 2025 – October 2026:

10 closed sales

from $1,350,000 to $1,500,000

Median close: $1,420,250

Median $286/SF,

with a range of $245–$308/SF

Median 23 days on market

for homes that never reduced, against 104 days for those that did

Price per square foot falls as homes get larger. The largest closed comparable, 111 Sebastians Run at 6,114 SF, closed at $245/SF. That matters for a 5,597 SF home: the closed band, not the median $/SF, sets the realistic value.

Closed Comparable Sales — Two-Story

Two-story median: $288/SF

Address

SF

Acres

Built

Close

$/SF

DOM

15317 Harrier Marsh Dr

4,646

0.22

2012

$1,365,000

$294

12

4312 Lakeway Blvd

5,040

0.50

2002

$1,380,000

$274

33

5309 Laguna Cliff Ln

5,194

1.76

2003

$1,400,000

$270

79

302 Lodestone Ln

4,929

0.76

2019

$1,418,000

$288

87

3704 Kenora Ct

4,996

0.52

1999

$1,422,500

$285

84

106 Lakota Pass

4,703

0.31

2007

$1,450,000

$308

13

2 Heatherbloom Ln

5,183

0.85

1999

$1,500,000

$289

133

Single-Story and Multi-Level

Address

Levels

SF

Close

$/SF

DOM

118 Lido St

One-story + guest house

4,501

$1,350,000

$300

121

111 Sendera Bonita (Arbolago)

3+

5,359

$1,450,000

$271

121

111 Sebastians Run

3+

6,114

$1,496,000

$245

36

Active and Pending Competition

Full MLS sweep, October 13, 2026: single-family resale, 78734 and 78738, 4,800–6,500 SF, listed at $1.2M–$1.8M. Ten homes.

Address

Status · Built · SF · Acres · Pool · List Price · $/SF · DOM

106 Sendera Bonita (Arbolago)

Pending · 2000 · 5,712 · 1.01 · Yes · $1,350,000 · $236 · 16

312 Camino Arbolago

Active · 2007 · 6,310 · 1.00 · Yes · $1,595,000 · $253 · 113

404 Aria Dr (Alta Vista)

Active · 2005 · 5,069 · 0.50 · No · $1,299,999 · $256 · 144

15421 McCormick Vista Dr

Active · 2022 · 5,841* · 1.23 · Yes · $1,549,000 · $265 · 221

14 Torrington Ln (The Hills)

Active · 1999 · 5,060 · 0.64 · Yes · $1,345,000 · $266 · 144

Address

Status · Built · SF · Acres · Pool · List Price · $/SF · DOM

312 Bisset Ct (Rough Hollow)

Active · 2018 · 5,003 · 0.31 · No · $1,360,000 · $272 · 105

407 Hurst Creek Rd (Lakeway)

Active · 2007 · 4,980 · 0.33 · Yes · $1,499,900 · $301 · 108

6825 Davenport Divide Rd

Under contract · 2021 · 5,416 · 0.43 · No · $1,699,000 · $314 · 51

109 Bisset Ct (Rough Hollow)

Active · 2019 · 5,282 · 0.33 · Yes · $1,699,000 · $322 · 266

4127 Lago Viento Dr

Under contract · 2016 · 4,978 · 1.08 · Yes · $1,750,000 · $352 · 30

*Floor plan measures 4,853 SF finished; 5,841 SF is the appraisal district total.

Active median: $269/SF. Bottom quartile: $259/SF and below.

What the Actives Tell Us

  • Homes are going under contract in two ways. Newer construction (2016 and 2021) is moving above $1.69M. Older resales are moving when priced at the bottom of the field, like 106 Sendera Bonita at $236/SF in 16 days.
  • Homes built between 1999 and 2007 that are priced in the middle are sitting. 407 Hurst Creek, nearby with panoramic lake views, has been at $1,499,900 for 108 days. 312 Camino Arbolago has been on the market for 113 days at $1,595,000.
  • The lower-priced actives give up something this home offers. 404 Aria Dr and 312 Bisset Ct have no pool. 404 Aria and 14 Torrington have no main-level primary suite. 312 Bisset and 14 Torrington sit on a third to two-thirds of an acre.
  • At $1,449,000 ($259/SF), 614 Ladin Lane enters at the bottom-quartile line of the full field. Among homes with a pool, only the pending 106 Sendera Bonita and the 113-day 312 Camino Arbolago list for less per square foot.

Value Analysis

Anchor comparable: 111 Sendera Bonita, Arbolago — closed $1,450,000, July 2026. It is the closest closed match on size, acreage and walkable private lake access.

Bracketed range after make-ready: $1,425,000 – $1,475,000

Without the make-ready, the condition adjustment becomes approximately −$60,000, for an as-is indicated value near $1,394,000.

Factor

111 Sendera Bonita

614 Ladin Ln

Adjustment

Close price

$1,450,000

—

—

Living area

5,359 SF

5,597 SF

+$24,000

Lot

1.53 ac, greenbelt

0.88 ac, level, backs to park

−$25,000

View

Miles of Hill Country

Lake view from upper deck; private elsewhere

−$25,000

Lake access

Trail to HOA lake park, day docks

~100 yd to HOA ramp and dock

+$25,000

Boat storage

Oversized 3-car

Oversized 3-car with boat storage

Included above

Community

Gated

Not gated (private drive gate)

−$15,000

Layout

3+ levels

Two levels, primary on main

+$10,000

Sport court

None

Pickleball court

+$25,000

Flood designation

None

Partial AE on lot

−$15,000

Condition

Custom resale, show-ready

After full make-ready

$0

Indicated value

$1,454,000

The Launch-Price Pattern

We measure every sale against its original list price. Measuring against the reduced price hides the cost of overpricing.

Cohort

Homes

Median % of launch price

Median days on market

Priced correctly — never reduced

4

99.3%

23

Reduced after launch

6

85.8%

104

The cost of a reduction: 13.5 points of launch price and 81 additional days.

The reduced homes did not close for more because they started higher. They closed in the same $1.35M–$1.50M band as everyone else, only later.

Every Home That Launched at $1,500,000 or Higher

Seven of seven closed between 81.8% and 90.0% of their launch price. None closed above $1,500,000.

Address

Launched

Reduced to

Closed

% of launch

DOM

118 Lido St

$1,650,000

$1,475,000

$1,350,000

81.8%

121

5309 Laguna Cliff Ln

$1,595,000

$1,495,000

$1,400,000

87.8%

79

302 Lodestone Ln

$1,575,000

$1,525,000

$1,418,000

90.0%

87

3704 Kenora Ct

$1,699,000

$1,499,000

$1,422,500

83.7%

84

111 Sendera Bonita

$1,749,900

$1,599,900

$1,450,000

82.9%

121

111 Sebastians Run

$1,695,000

—

$1,496,000

88.3%

36

2 Heatherbloom Ln

$1,675,000

$1,549,999

$1,500,000

89.6%

133

15421 McCormick Vista Dr

$2,175,000

$1,549,000

Active

—

221

312 Camino Arbolago

$1,790,000

$1,595,000

Active

—

113

Three Pricing Scenarios

Read the Modeled Close row first.


Test

Recommended

Velocity

Modeled close

$1,400,000 – $1,420,000

$1,420,000 – $1,440,000

$1,385,000 – $1,400,000

Expected days on market

100 – 130

20 – 35

10 – 20

List price

$1,525,000

$1,449,000

$1,399,000

Price per SF

$272

$259

$250

Comparable cohort

Launched $1.5M+ and reduced

Launched inside the band, never reduced

Launched below the band

Position against actives (on $/SF)

Upper half (60th percentile)

Bottom-quartile line (30th percentile)

Second-lowest of eleven

The Test price does not model to a higher sale. It models to roughly the same result, about 90 days later, with a reduction in the listing history for buyers to see.

If you prefer to test the market: we launch at $1,525,000 and agree in writing now to move to $1,449,000 on day 21. That captures any upside in the first three weeks without giving buyers the reduction to use against you later.

Our Recommendation

$1,449,000

  • Sits at the top of the band where homes sell in about three weeks
  • Sits at the bottom-quartile line of the full active field on price per square foot ($259 against a $269 median)
  • Sits $50,900 below 407 Hurst Creek and $146,000 below 312 Camino Arbolago, which have been on the market 108 and 113 days
  • At $259/SF, it is below every closed two-story comparable on a per-square-foot basis, which reads to buyers as value for the size
  • Gives us the strongest path to a close in the $1.42M–$1.44M range, without a reduction on the record

This number depends on the make-ready. In today's market, a home has to sit in the top 25% on presentation and the bottom 25% on price against the actives. If we launch with the home as it stands today, the price has to do all the work, and Velocity ($1,399,000) becomes the right entry point.

Pre-List Make-Ready

Sequence: clean-out → repairs and lighting → staging → photography

Exterior and grounds

  • Landscape refresh: trim overgrowth, fresh mulch in front and rear beds, fill gaps left by the palm removal
  • Remediate organic growth on the roof, the house and the balcony railing; clean the gutters
  • Power-wash the patio, pool decking and stone grotto; clean the grill and the stone behind it
  • Refinish the iron front door; repaint the back doors, the street gate and the window lintels
  • Reinforce and restain the family-room deck; caulk the fascia under the patio ceiling
  • Remove the cold plunge, flagpole, exterior speakers and upstairs benches
  • Have the diving board base inspected

Interior

  • Replace the carpet on the stairs and upstairs, with odor treatment of the subfloor
  • Repaint the main living areas (the interior was last painted in 2018); touch up baseboards
  • Update lighting at the patio and in key interior rooms; consider new kitchen bar pendants
  • Steam-clean the tile floors and showers; confirm the travertine has been maintained
  • Caulk the primary bedroom crown molding; repair the texture at the gym can light
  • Adjust the upstairs balcony door; inspect the windows for failed seals
  • Complete the water softener repair (parts on order)

Professional staging

  • Main living areas, primary suite and key secondary rooms
  • Pool terrace, covered patio and the pickleball court as a lifestyle scene

Documentation

  • Survey and elevation certificate on file before launch, so buyers have their flood answers on day one

FPG Marketing & Concierge Plan

  • Lifestyle-led positioning: lake access on foot, room for a boat, a lake view from the upper deck, a resort-style backyard and a pickleball court
  • Professional photography after staging, including twilight and aerial images that show the lot, the park, and the lake ramp in one frame
  • Cinematic video and a 3D tour
  • Property brochure and a dedicated property website
  • Targeted digital campaign to boat owners, and to buyers relocating to Lake Travis ISD
  • Agent preview before public launch
  • eXp Luxury syndication and our direct network of Lakeway buyers' agents
  • A single point of contact for vendors, showings and feedback throughout

The First 30 Days

Window

Focus

Weeks −3 to −1

Clean-out, repairs, lighting, landscape refresh

Week −1

Staging, then photography, video and aerials

Days 1–3

Coming-soon preview to agents; public launch

Days 4–10

Launch weekend showings; buyer and agent feedback compiled

Days 11–21

Feedback review with you; second-wave marketing

Day 21

Scheduled strategy checkpoint (or pre-agreed price move, if launched at Test)

What This Means for the Buyer's Numbers

Your current tax bill reflects homestead and senior exemptions. A buyer's taxes will reset to the purchase price at the current combined rate of 1.8467%.

Purchase price

Estimated annual property tax*

$1,399,000

$25,835

$1,449,000

$26,759

$1,525,000

$28,162

*Before the buyer's own homestead exemption. 2026 combined rate across Travis County, Lake Travis ISD, Travis County Hospital District, City of Lakeway, Lakeway MUD and ESD No. 6.

Buyers compare monthly costs, not just the price. Each $75,000 of list price adds about $1,385 a year in taxes, on top of the higher mortgage payment. This is part of why the market holds firm at the top of the band.

Next Steps

  1. Confirm the list-price strategy and, if you choose to test, the day-21 price move
  1. Approve the make-ready scope; we will coordinate bids and scheduling
  1. Order the survey and elevation certificate
  1. Review the net sheet at your confirmed price
  1. Schedule staging, then photography
  1. Sign the listing agreement and set the launch date

Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury